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The length and depth of the current correction will depend on the course of employment growth and interest rates, as well as the speed with which builders pare down excess supply. But the longer term outlook for housing is more upbeat. Thanks in large part to recent immigrants and their native-born children, household growth between 2005 and 2015 should exceed the strong 12.6 million net increase in 1995–2005 by some 2.0 million. Together with the enormous increase in household wealth over the past 20 years, healthy income growth will help propel residential spending to new heights.

But housing affordability remains a pervasive problem. In just one year, the number of households with housing cost burdens in excess of 30 percent of income climbed by 2.3 million, hitting a record 37.3 million in 2005. Making real headway against this disturbing trend requires an unlikely combination of structural and public policy shifts—that state and local governments ease development regulations that drive up production costs, the federal government adds meaningfully to already significant expenditures aimed at relieving heavy housing cost burdens, and economic growth dramatically lifts the real incomes and wealth of the bottom quarter of households. (Joint Center)
Report
2007
Cambridge, MA
617-495-7908
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